MacVillage.net

Microsoft has recently been very vocal about not being able to sell the 750,000 copies they hoped they would. Instead about 300,000 copies have been sold at this time. Microsoft claims that this discrepancy is Apple’s fault because of the low Mac OS X adoption rate due to bad marketing.

So who really is to blame? Microsoft or Apple? Surely someone is at fault over this. My theory is that while Apple had been a bit slower than anticipated in throwing it’s full support behind OS X, which was with good reason, Microsoft is mainly at fault. Apple couldn’t throw its entire well being behind the very first release. It was just not ready for prime time. It lacked DVD support, and had some bugs. Just like Microsoft has had with their first releases. With Mac OS X 10.1, Apple had gained enough experience with the OS, to promote it as a really usable OS. Which at that time it became, with one exception.

Every computer needs an office productivity package, such as Microsoft Office. Microsoft has been the leader in Office productivity since the early 90’s. Other contenders such as Corel have left the market for quite some time. Apple bundles AppleWorks, formerly Claris Works which is more than adequate for most home applications.

My theory is that Microsoft isn’t selling enough copies of Office X. because of the hefty price tag. Office can cost a few hundred dollars. Most home and small business users don’t have that money just ready to throw around. Especially with today’s economy. With AppleWorks shipping free on most Macs, and that being very easy to use and already included. What entices people to spend money on software that does what they already have? For large businesses, the expense is a must, but little Johnny can do his book report just as well with AppleWorks.

I for one lack a reason to buy right now because I have no real need for OS X. All the software I use on a regular basis is available for Mac OS 9 and Mac OS X. I have Office for Mac OS 9, and not for X. Office is the only product keeping me from OS X. But I have no strong reason to invest at this time. When Mac OS X appears to be mandatory for new software, I will consider making the switch 100%. But for now, Mac OS 9 is stable for me (haven’t had a crash in months), fast enough, and all the software is there including Office. I am never in a situation where OS X is a must for me. That point hasn’t been reached yet. When I switch to OS X full time, I will then want to buy Office for Mac OS X, but if I don’t want to waste money buying it now, when I am perfectly happy in OS 9.

If Microsoft would make it reasonable to upgrade from all previous versions, not just 2001, and made Office prices more reasonable, it would sell much better than it has. $300+ dollars for a software package that really isn’t needed by the average home user just isn’t practical. AppleWorks is a quality product, and is already there. StarOffice will also be coming to Mac very soon providing a more powerful alternative.

Perhaps reaching a deal with Apple that would include Office X at a substantial discount to home users who purchased OS X or a new computer in the past year?

The bottom line is it will take more than marketing to get Mac users to upgrade Office when a good product is already available at no charge. Microsoft wants home users to pay a price that many businesses claim is to high. It just won’t work anymore. Home users shouldn’t need to take out a bank loan to buy software. There are PC’s available for nearly the same price as this software. Bulling the markets is a thing of the past. This stunning fact is angering Microsoft. Hopefully in the near future Microsoft’s Marketing will re-evaluate the market and see that home users won’t spend hundreds on software they don’t really need.

It appears Apple has listened to MacVillage.net. I stated in an article last month discussing the need for an Application to help transition “deflectors” from the Microsoft market.

What Apple really needs to do is to take their old advice and “Think Different”. Instead of showing the conversion process, Apple should be working to engineer a software program to include with every Mac that will help perform the conversion. The program should be a wizard type product and help copy files to CD’s or disks, (or network them over), copy mail, address book, bookmarks, Palm files etc. A program on the Mac side should import the CD and convert whatever needs to be converted (mail and address book) and put away and organize everything else.

Having the program check all programs installed on the Windows computer and display if it is available for Mac, or recommend a similar program would also be a nice touch (Powered by Macintosh Product Guide).

It’s the missing link for Apple to succeed. Apple needs people to think that it isn’t even a true process but run a program and follow the prompts to switch over. Then everything will truly be “easier on a Mac.”
[Link]

It appears Apple has listened. From MacFixIt:

“Switch While discussing the success of Apple’s “switch” ad campaign, Steve noted the release of Move2Mac, a new program designed to facilitate moving PC files to a Mac. The software is being shown on the Expo floor.“

Provided that the program works as provided, it will make a huge difference for PC users wishing to deflect from the “dark side”. Making it an easy transition will be a good marketing technique towards those who are thinking of the benefits a Mac offers, but don’t want the switching hassle, and anyone who has switched before knows it can be a hassle.

My hopes are that the program will accomplish the following:
Users Documents
Palm Desktop
Email from a vast series of clients including Outlook, Netscape 4, and 6.
IE and Netscape Bookmarks
Network settings (good for broadband users) and printer information (if on a network)
Gives a list of connected devices and tells if they are Mac compatible, and if a driver is needed, where to get it.

Making the transition simple, is enticing. While a Mac is easy to use. If getting one to use is tough, people will not be eager to switch. Someone switching is not comfortable with OS X yet, hence doesn’t necessarily have the know how to bring their data over.

Apple today announced that iTools is no more, and .Mac is the new game in town. While it isn’t exactly a .Net, it is going to change the way Mac users use the Internet. Up until now, most Mac users have enjoyed several free services such as Email, iDisk, and HomePage. These services will now cost users $8.33 a month.

Is it worth while? Personally, I don’t think so, but I am sure to some users, they will decide it to be worth the cost. From the way I see it:
You can get a POP3 email account from many different providers at no cost.
You can get web space for a website from many sites including MacVillage.net.
Online Storage is available from Yahoo and others, and in most cases they provide more than enough space.
A simple Perl script will provide great backups, and can be automated with crontab.
Everyone should already have a virus scan.
Why does one need a web based address book and calendar when Palm Pilots are accessible without a computer or internet access and are so affordable?

So for me, I can’t get what would be worth while to Mac users. The only reason to pay is to keep the @mac.com email address everyone knows. Apple hijacked them out from under users. What used to be a free service will now require a yearly fee. My only complaint is that Apple should provide at least web based (ad supported) email for current users, and from this point forward, .Mac accounts only.

And yes, I am aware that Microsoft is still providing Hotmail at no charge.

Let Apple know what you think about losing your email address:
http://www.apple.com/feedback/mac.html

A week ago I asked what your predictions were for MWNY. Below are the first people to give the most common predictions. And the predictions are?


I believe that the DDR memory in the XServers indicates that the updated
G4 towers will include DDR memory @266 as well as a speed bump. I’m
hoping for more (1.5 Ghz would be sweet) but will be happy with 1.0 Ghz
for the base model and 1.33 dual processor top of the line.

The iMac G4 speed will be bumped to match the base model G4 tower, the
CRT iMac will be reduced to a single model.

I also believe that the 17″ iMac rumors are wrong, but there will be a
new line of LCD displays at 17″, 19″ and 23″.

- Steve Minard



What about the PowerBook and iBook? Maybe the iBook will stay static, but
it’s time for a major new PowerBook.

- Mike Kaufmann



You missed FireWire 2.0 and blueteeth, uh I mean lots of bluetooth
enabled (not ready but actually built-in) devices. Wireless keyboard,
mice (uh, mouses), monitors, speakers, etc. Plus bluetooth connected
iAppliances like iPods, iCamera, iToaster, iIceCreamMaker, etc.

- Juan Mariscal


Don’t forget the Xserve. With it supporting up to 2GB of DDR RAM,
ATA/100, and 66MHz PCI slots, don’t be surprised to find these
architectural improvements in the next Power Mac revision.

- Fred Turner


I see a 25% chance of all new Macs connecting mice, keyboards using
Bluetooth
- Mick Hamblen



I think you left out DDR RAM it has been cheap for some time and PowerMac
desperately need it to survive.

- Edmond Engelbrecht

Apple has had a signifigant fan base since the beginning. Many would argue it’s these dedicated users who have kept the company going through hard times. Microsoft doesn’t really have a fan base. You don’t see people buying Microsoft posters to decorate their office like people have with “Think Different” posters. You don’t see PC evangelists, but you do see Mac evangelists. Apple is loved. Love has kept Apple afloat.

There are several times every year when Apple and the Apple lovers renew their vows. We call these times Expo’s. It now appears that one side refuses to renew it’s vows with some.

Apple has recently been pushing IDG to block media passes to the MWNY Expo next week to many news sites who write, mention, or link to rumors. One of the criminals being blocked is MacFixIt. Just in case you didn’t already know. MacFixIt is one of the most reputable websites around. Over the years they have provided some of the best coverage and have come to the rescue of infinate Mac owners by facilitating troubleshooting. They are far from a Rumor site. According to their website: “Macworld Expo (apparently acting at Apple’s request) has banned numerous Web sites (including MacFixIt) from getting press passes for Macworld Expo. This is so even in cases where the press pass had been previously approved.” More recently they have said they received 1.

It appears that Apple compiled a pretty through list of anyone who linked to, mentioned, or created a rumor. Now for those in the industry for a while, that basically takes care of everyone but Apple’s own Hot-News. I would assume that MacCentral will get by as it is a subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), who runs the Expo.

Will this lead to less coverage of MWNY? In a word, No. Many Mac news organizations don’t even attend. With all of the communication via press releases, it is very easy to provide good coverage via the Internet. Many sites have been doing this for years and you may have never known. Not to mention just going to the floor of the Expo as a regular person.

This will most likely just cause a backlash of bad PR for Apple. Rumor sites normally don’t attend the expo anyway, so they don’t care. This simply with annoy regular news sites and cause unnecessary hassle. You would think that Apple would use it’s legal department to curb these rumors yet try to keep the media guessing and building some hype for the Expo. The hype the media builds is free advertising for the Expo.

Seems to me like Apple is hurting the relationship between themselves and the media. It won’t stop rumors, and it will only cause anger and frustration. Will blocking sites like MacFixIt from attending the expo stop rumors? No. Silly Apple, rumors are for kids.

First I would like to say that I think this will be a busy MacWorld NY. I say this because there are indications that there will be many changes tot he product lineup. My predictions are a percentage based on how sure I am. So without further delays, here is my official MWNY Predictions list:

100% - Mac OS X 10.2
I am virtually positive we will have a definitive date for Mac OS X 10.2. It seems that Apple is well under way for Mac OS 10.2 to be released in August. Initially it was late summer (normally meaning early fall) but this time it appears to be on track. I am certain Jobs will be making a mention of this news early in the Expo, and will not stop emphasizing it.

99% - RAID Storage Product
Apple briefly mentioned that a high-performance RAID storage product featuring industry standard 2Gb Fiber Channel, will be introduced later this year when it introduced the Xserve. Now is the time.

90% - QuickTime 6
It’s been in preview for a few weeks now, I think at the very least we will get a second preview, if not a final QuickTime 6. So far the reviews are pretty good, and there haven’t been many problems with the new software.

75% - G4 1.2 GHz+ and SuperDrive revision
It seems about time for a speed bump to the G4 line. I don ‘t think Apple will be making a huge bump, or any big configuration changes, but I think the processors will be bumped to anywhere from 1.2 GHz to 1.5 GHz. There hopefully will be more options as well (more processor speeds that can be used in dual systems rather than just 1 GHz). Possibly a new SuperDrive that is faster and has the ability to have multiple sessions on a disk.

60% - iTablet
iTablet is a very likely in development prospect, though I don’t know when it would be released, now or in January. Apple has been rumored to be at work on a PDA type device for some time. Mac OS X 10.2 is interestingly making room for a PDA like device rather than a typical desktop computer. It may be to early for this device, but I think it is coming.
[Link]

50% - iMac G4 - 17 LCD
I really don’t see this happening. It seems that Apple wants to keep the cost of the iMac so that it is as low as possible. I think it is much more likely to see a speed boost, possibly to 1 GHz. Perhaps a special edition will feature a 17 inch LCD.

10% iBrowser
There has been word for some time that Apple is working on “iBrowser” an alternative for Internet Explorer, based on Gecko in most cases. If it is in development, don’t expect it until January at the earliest. And why would Apple bother? Chimera is coming along nicely (and quickly) and is based on Gecko? Mozilla is already around, but just has a slightly sluggish interface?

1% - G5
I would love to be proved wrong, but Apple isn’t nearly ready to release a G5. Motorola isn’t ready to release a G5. Nobody is ready. It just won’t happen.


Email me your predictions. I will be compiling a list of predictions from readers for the expo. Be sure to include your name or alias that you want to go by.